Bitcoin Supply Shock: Long-Term Holders Keep Coins Off the Market

Bitcoin's circulating supply has become increasingly tight as long-term holders continue to keep their coins off the market. According to data from River Financial, 81% of BTC has remained untouched for at least six months, with approximately 16.3 million BTC still idle.

This leaves around 3.7 million BTC in active circulation, making up a smaller portion of Bitcoin's total circulating supply near 19.7 million coins. Long-term holders have added over 3 million BTC since 2020, contributing to the shrinking active supply.

While retail investors previously sold a net 140,000 BTC during the first half of 2026, their trend has reversed in Q3, with them buying back more than 107,000 BTC. Mid-sized wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have also accumulated over 113,000 BTC since mid-July.

Whales are placing large orders on both sides of the market, creating a clear battle zone around $85K - $87K. Large sell orders totaling around $37 million are placed between $85,122 and $87,000, making it harder for Bitcoin to move above this range.