Bitcoin Supply Squeeze: Myth vs Reality Uncovered
The notion that Bitcoin has a fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins is a myth. According to analysts at Ledger and Unchained, the effective circulating supply ranges between 15.8 and 17.5 million coins due to lost or inaccessible coins. It's estimated that around 3.8 million BTC are missing, which would place the circulating supply within this range.
This discrepancy arises because coins age into 'ancient' status faster than miners produce new ones. In 2025, more than 566 BTC per day entered this category, while miners only produced 450 BTC per day after the 2024 halving.
The lost coins include Satoshi Nakamoto's early mining stash of 1.148 million BTC and other coins that have been removed from circulation due to human error or technical issues. For example, James Howells' 8,000 BTC were lost in a landfill, while Stefan Thomas's 7,000 BTC are locked behind a forgotten IronKey password.
In 2026, it's estimated that 46 percent of the total Bitcoin supply is 'underwater', meaning it has not moved in years. Recent data shows that 43 percent of all Bitcoin in circulation has not moved in three or more years.