Bitcoin Targets $90,000 as ETF Inflows Fail 2025 Test
Bitcoin's recent price action has been closely tied to the inflow of ETF creation runs, though the expected rally in 2025 has yet to materialize. The author's September ETF data only held up due to a strong Monday, as creation runs that previously favored a rally in 2026 provided no advantage in 2025. This discrepancy became apparent when Bitcoin closed at $86,597 on September 21 after the largest creation day of 2026, only to drop 3.6% in the following week despite continued fund inflows.
Analysts at Glassnode identified the $83,000 to $86,000 range as a ceiling on September 9, noting that prices traded above it by September 23. By October 4, Bitcoin had closed at $86,490, surpassing a wall of sell orders between $85,000 and $85,500, as reported by Glassnode on September 30. Despite these fluctuations, the unspent Mt. Gox addresses remain a significant factor in the market.
The author predicts Bitcoin is more likely to close at $90,000 than dip to $82,000, aligning with historical trends. This outlook is supported by the resilience of Bitcoin's price above key resistance levels and the ongoing accumulation by ETFs, even as short-term volatility persists.