Bitcoin Tests Key Cost Basis as $87K Liquidity Sweep Looms

The Bitcoin price is at a critical juncture, with one analyst suggesting that a liquidity sweep around $87,000 could lead to a deeper decline toward $75,000. The proposed scenario includes a drop to $85,000, followed by $75,000, $70,000, and eventually a rebound toward $100,000. However, this is just a forecast and not a certainty.

The current focus is on whether the market can sustain its underlying cost basis. The Trader On-chain Realized Price is near $68,900, with an upper band around $96,500. Bitcoin has managed to recover above the baseline, but maintaining this position is crucial.

Historical data from 2019, 2020, and early 2023 shows similar recovery phases where the price moved above the realized price before testing the underlying cost basis again. However, these periods varied in timing and did not establish a consistent success rate.

The analyst's bearish outlook centers on the $87,000 level, which could act as a trap, followed by liquidation below $75,000. The proposed downside levels include $75,000, $70,000, and broader liquidity areas below. Meanwhile, the on-chain framework highlights $68,900 as a key structural reference.

If Bitcoin holds the Trader Realized Price and rebounds, it could signal strong demand absorbing supply, potentially leading to another advance toward the $96,500 upper band. Conversely, a sustained move below the baseline, followed by a failed reclaim, could indicate stronger breakeven selling than fresh buying.