Bitcoin Trades 32% Below Year-Ago All-Time High
Bitcoin is trading 32% below its all-time high (ATH) of $126,000, which was reached on Binance exactly one year ago. The leading cryptocurrency currently sits at around $86,000, marking a significant drop from its peak. Over the past year, Bitcoin has experienced a steep decline, falling more than 54% from its ATH before recovering nearly 49% from its July low of $58,600.
Analysts note that the current market structure is different from the period before the 2025 crash. Leveraged positions appear less overheated, and exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows have slowed. On October 2, QCP analysts observed that the annual funding rate for perpetual Bitcoin futures was around 5.4%, suggesting that the recovery is driven more by spot capital than by increased leverage. Glassnode reported that open interest in futures has returned to normal levels, while options metrics have decreased after the quarterly expiration.
Institutional demand through ETFs has become less clear. On October 5, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $89.9 million, interrupting two days of inflows totaling approximately $293 million. BlackRock’s IBIT received $69.9 million, while investors withdrew $85.2 million from ARKB by ARK Invest and 21Shares, and $74.5 million from Fidelity’s FBTC. Glassnode also pointed to a cooling of ETF flows following the previous surge, with trading volumes near the lower boundary of the usual range.
High Treasury yields are limiting Bitcoin’s growth potential. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is around 5.3%, and 30-year bonds are about 5.7%, both nearing 24-year highs. While weak employment data supports the scenario of a Federal Reserve rate hike pause in October, the high yields on long bonds continue to constrain the growth of risk assets. At the time of publication, Bitcoin is holding around $86,000, with analysts identifying $87,200 as the nearest resistance. Breaking $87,400 could pave the way to the psychological level of $90,000, with support around $85,000 and further support near $83,000.