Bitcoin Transfer Estimates Vary by Sixfold Due to Measurement Discrepancies
Researchers at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) have found a significant discrepancy in estimates of Bitcoin onchain transfer values. The study analyzed 100 billion blockchain records across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tron and discovered that these estimates can vary by as much as sixfold depending on how transactions are measured.
The researchers attribute this discrepancy to the way change outputs and other transfers back to the sender are treated. In Bitcoin's transaction structure, when users spend coins, unspent funds are often returned to the sender as change, which can be counted as another output even though it does not represent funds being transferred to another party.
The measurement problem also extends to Bitcoin's market capitalization. The study found that conventional measures have at times been as much as four times higher than realized capitalization, which values each coin at the price when it last moved.