Bitcoin Transfer Volume Estimates Vary Wildly Depending on Methodology
A recent study by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has found that estimates of Bitcoin's on-chain transfer volume can differ by up to six times depending on the methodology used.
The analysis, which covered over 100 billion records from the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and TRON networks, highlighted three main measurement challenges: counting transfers in blockchains with a UTXO model, classifying smart contract activity, and comparing the same assets across different blockchains.
In the case of Bitcoin, balances consist of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs), which can lead to inflated transfer volume estimates if not properly accounted for. The researchers compared several approaches, including no adjustments, excluding transfers to the sender's address, and a more conservative change heuristic.
The results showed that final figures differed by up to six times depending on the approach used. The study also found significant differences in USDT usage across blockchains, with Ethereum's share of stablecoins held at smart contract addresses exceeding 20% in 2022.