Bitcoin Trapped Between $62-65k Resistance as Long-Term Holder Supply Declines

Bitcoin's recent struggles to break above $65,000 have continued as the cryptocurrency met resistance at this level six times in the past two weeks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices set all-time highs during this period, while Bitcoin remained stuck in a narrow range of $62,000-$65,000.

The market's inability to move above $65,000 is attributed to the large concentration of holders within this price band, with 8.93% of circulating supply holding coins at a cost basis between $62,000 and $65,000. This has resulted in a 'two-way business' where daily moves are small as holders transact around their break-even points.

A decline in long-term holder supply was observed for the first time this year, with 210,000 BTC leaving the cohort since its peak on July 29th. However, the spending data indicates that younger members of the cohort (buyers of the cycle top who have just aged past the 155-day classification threshold) are selling at an average price of $71,000 to $76,000, which dates back to October 2025 to March 2026.

The derivatives market also reflects a neutral positioning, with a put premium that is date-sized and concentrated around the September meeting. The total put-to-call open interest sits at 0.57, indicating more calls outstanding than puts, and perpetual funding is effectively neutral.