Bitcoin Tumbles to $45,000 in Possible Q4 Low

Bitcoin's price could plummet to $45,000 by early October 2026, according to an analysis that draws parallels between the current market cycle and previous crypto exchange failures.

The forecast comes as Bitcoin struggles to maintain its position above $65,000 despite recent spot ETF inflows and improving market sentiment. The cryptocurrency is currently trading at around $64,710, up about 0.9% over the past 24 hours.

TradingShot's analysis centers on the planned shutdown of BitMEX after 11 years of operations, which it argues may signal the current market cycle is approaching a similar capitulation phase. This would put Bitcoin in line with previous exchange failures like Mt. Gox, BitGrail, and FTX.

Bitcoin's technical structure also suggests a possible downturn, with its rising 100-month moving average forming just above its historical Realized Price Buy Zone.