Bitcoin 'Uptober' Starts Strong at $83K Amid Fed Hike Odds and Treasury Yield Rise

Bitcoin's 'Uptober' started on a strong note, trading at approximately $83,823 on October 1. This nickname comes from its historically strong performance in the month, with data showing that Bitcoin has finished October in positive territory in 10 of the 13 years between 2013 and 2025.

The average October return is around 18.7%, while the median return is 12.73%. However, this figure is influenced by a few exceptional rallies, including gains of 60.79% in 2013, 47.81% in 2017, and 39.93% in 2021.

The month's performance will also depend on the outcome of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on October 27-28, where there is a 70% probability of an interest rate hike. The rise in Treasury yields has made interest-bearing assets more attractive than Bitcoin, which does not generate yield.