Bitcoin Volatility Plunges Below Nasdaq Amidst Record ETF Outflows

Bitcoin's volatility has dropped to its lowest level since 2023, falling below that of the Nasdaq for only the fifth time on record. According to a report from K33, Bitcoin's 30-day volatility has decreased to 1.132%, marking its fourth-lowest reading of the 2020s. This decline is unusual, as Bitcoin typically experiences higher volatility than traditional risk assets.

The last four times this occurred were in October 2018, October 2022, January 2023, and April 2025. In each case, a sharp price move followed, with the exception of the current episode. Analysts at K33 note that this compression reflects an abnormality, and they warn that a larger move is imminent.

Subdued trading activity has also characterized the market, with average daily Bitcoin spot volumes falling to $1.63 billion last week, the lowest level since October 2023. Retail investors have been driving the largest quarterly net outflow of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on record, which amounts to $389.71 million in outflows.

Bitfinex analysts believe that a return to sustained spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and expanding stablecoin supply could indicate a catalyst for Bitcoin's next major move. They also note that a recovery in Bitcoin's price above $67,176 would restore profitability for recent buyers.