Bitcoin Whales Ignore Prediction Markets as They Accumulate Ahead of Key Support Level

Bitcoin whales are aggressively accumulating despite prediction markets indicating a higher chance of a drop to $50,000 than a run to $100,000 in 2026.

Trader exitpump pushed back against Kalshi's odds, citing the FTX collapse as an important long-term support level for Bitcoin. The trader noted that the market is undergoing its first meaningful retest of the anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP), which has become the average cost basis for a large share of Bitcoin accumulated since late 2022.

Exitpump argued that if Bitcoin continues attracting sustained spot demand and fails to gain acceptance below this level, it could be building the base for the next major leg higher. The trader emphasized that years of ETF inflows, institutional participation, and trading activity have turned the AVWAP into a crucial benchmark.

CryptoQuant reported that over 38,000 BTC recently flowed into accumulation addresses, one of the largest inflows recorded for wallets typically associated with long-term holders and OTC settlement activity. The realized price of these accumulation wallets currently sits near $70,000, compared to Bitcoin trading around $64,000.

CryptoQuant outlined two possible scenarios: a bullish case where whales are accumulating in anticipation of the next leg higher, or a cautious case where buyers may be averaging down with plans to distribute holdings if Bitcoin revisits their roughly $70,000 cost basis. The firm noted that the key signal will come if Bitcoin approaches that level.