Bitcoin's performance against the S&P 500 has improved significantly, winning more than half of the trading sessions in October. As of October 26, Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 on 10 of the 18 trading days, marking a recovery from its weakest stretch in roughly six years. Despite this, Bitcoin still ended the month with a 4.25% loss, while the S&P 500 gained 0.33%, resulting in a 4.58% advantage for stocks.
The surge in Bitcoin's relative win rate is largely driven by BlackRock's IBIT ETF, which has dominated net inflows. Since August, IBIT has attracted about $6 billion, capturing 92% of net inflows among US spot Bitcoin ETFs. By October 26, this share had risen to 96.3%, reflecting both strong inflows into IBIT and redemptions from rival funds. Across October, IBIT averaged $48.1 million in daily net inflows, while competing funds lost $59.4 million a day.
Despite the concentrated demand from IBIT, broader market indicators suggest thin liquidity beneath Bitcoin's recovery. Stablecoin supply remains $12.7 billion below its May peak, and the Coinbase premium stayed negative through October, indicating soft US spot demand. Glassnode's data shows spot cumulative volume delta at negative $80.5 million, with options 25-delta skew climbing to 10.4%, signaling stronger demand for downside protection.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin's path depends on several factors, including Fed policy, IBIT inflows, and macroeconomic conditions. If current trends continue, Bitcoin could reach $82,500 to $84,400. However, a break below $77,000 to $77,800 would expose the $73,000 to $75,000 zone. One-month implied volatility near 35% frames a potential range of $76,100 to $83,900 over seven days.