Bitcoin Yield Curve Flashes Warning as Two Incomplete Cycles Raise Red Flags

The Bitcoin yield curve is flashing a warning signal to investors, according to an analysis by PersianBlockchain. The curve represents demand and the market's ability to sustain growth, and it has been showing two inefficient cycles with incomplete tops.

Looking at other markets like gold and the S&P 500, their prices have continued to move along a consistent curve over the years. However, Bitcoin's price has failed to reach expected levels in its cycles. In 2021, it was supposed to reach $100,000 but only got close to that level. In 2025, the market failed to touch $200,000 and enter the true euphoric phase or the top of the cycle.

The analysis also points out that despite the arrival of institutions and major Bitcoin ETFs, and massive amounts of capital flowing into the market, Bitcoin is still trapped in a defective cycle. Furthermore, almost all of the capital was concentrated in Bitcoin rather than flowing into altcoins.