Bitcoin's 25% Rebound Hides Year-Over-Year Loss
Bitcoin's price has rebounded by 25% from its annual low of $57,800 reached on July 1, 2026, but still shows a year-to-date loss of 9.62%. The recovery is attributed to institutional flows, specifically the net inflows of $2.39 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States during the week of September 21-25, 2026. This is the highest weekly figure of the year and marks a significant reversal from the eight consecutive weeks of redemptions culminating on July 2.
The rebound also coincides with on-chain data showing $2.52 billion in BTC withdrawn from exchanges between September 22 and 24, and wallets with balances of 100 to 1,000 BTC accumulating 113,950 BTC since mid-July. According to Alphractal, the rally was enough to eliminate main short positions built during the last 365 days.
However, despite this recovery, Bitcoin's year-to-date return is approximately +7.6%, which is below other asset classes such as commodities (+47.3%), US equities (16-20%), and convertible bonds (+15.2%). Additionally, the halving cycle suggests that the third year has historically coincided with bear markets.