Bitcoin's 50-Week Moving Average Break: What Does It Mean for the Price?

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, says Bitcoin closing above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks historically confirms the bear market low is in.

The 50-week moving average was around $78,786 when Bitcoin closed at $81,159 on September 20. This followed a period where it fell below this average in November 2025 and stayed below it for 45 weeks before hitting its low of $57,718.

According to Thorn, reclaiming the 50-week moving average usually signals that the bear market low has been reached. Historically, after four of the last five bear markets, the first weekly close above this moving average followed a low that held steady.

The notable exception is from late 2021 to 2022 when Bitcoin crossed above the 50-week average twice but subsequently made lower lows. This decline was driven by major events including the collapses of the Luna stablecoin and the Three Arrows hedge fund.