Bitcoin’s $85,000 Recovery Hinges on ETF Investor Commitment
Bitcoin’s attempt to recover above $85,000 is facing a critical demand test following a sharp drop in bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike. A post-payroll study by Glassnode revealed that the strongest forced buying occurred before the jobs report was released, with Bitcoin’s price retreating afterward. As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $85,276, up 0.83% over 24 hours, but still below the $86,000 level reached before the payroll data.
The question for holders tracking Bitcoin’s recovery is who will sustain the upward momentum after the initial short squeeze. While Thursday’s ETF inflows provided a buying signal, incomplete Friday figures leave the industry's response to payrolls unresolved heading into Monday’s US session. Glassnode’s study estimated that the probability of an additional quarter-point hike at the October 28 meeting fell from 66% on September 28 to 22% by 15:00 UTC on October 2. The strongest forced buying, measured at $50 million of short liquidations in ten minutes, occurred at 04:20 UTC on October 2, eight hours before the jobs release.
Open interest, the value of outstanding futures positions, rose $2.1 billion in the 24 hours before payrolls but fell $1.5 billion after the release. This sequence suggests that expanding positions fueled the advance, while their subsequent retreat coincided with falling prices. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $102 million on October 1, indicating that fund buying had returned before payrolls. However, Thursday’s flow describes a session before the report, leaving Friday’s response to be measured separately.
The Institute for Supply Management’s September services report, scheduled for Monday, October 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET, will provide a fresh check on the rate outlook. The next US ETF sessions will show whether fund investors keep buying as the market absorbs the outlook. Sustaining a recovery toward $86,000 with repeated fund inflows and stronger spot participation would weaken demand concerns, while another rejection without these supporting signals would strengthen them.