Bitcoin's $85K Breakout Hangs in Balance as 'Uptober' Momentum Unfolds

Bitcoin's recent breakout above $85K has many in the market wondering if this is the start of 'Uptober', a period historically known for its strong performance. According to historical data, Q4 has been one of Bitcoin's strongest quarters, with an average quarterly return on investment exceeding 70%. However, for history to repeat itself, October must set the tone for Q4 momentum.

The chart shows that the sell wall above BTC has largely disappeared, making it easier for the price to move higher if buying takes off. This is supported by the macro setup, which suggests a more liquidity-friendly environment with rate hike odds dropping from 70% to 26%. Improved liquidity expectations could give Bitcoin room to extend its momentum.

However, the market is not yet convinced. Weak ETF flows and heavy sell orders above $85K are building up, making it harder for Bitcoin to sustain its breakout. This discrepancy between spot demand and derivatives sentiment may turn the recent move into a fakeout, catching late bulls off guard and undermining Bitcoin's early 'Uptober' momentum.