Bitcoin's $87,392 Surge: Rebound or New Bull Market?
Bitcoin's recent surge has left investors wondering whether it's a rebound from the bear market or the start of a new bull cycle. The cryptocurrency reached as high as $87,392 on September 21, its highest price since January 29. However, according to Bitfinex, this rally is not yet a confirmed new bull market.
In the past two cycles, bear market rebounds that didn't evolve into new bull markets often rebounded by about 50% from their lows. While Bitcoin's current gain of over 50% since its low in July is notable, it's not enough to distinguish this rally from a bear market repair.
The profitable supply ratio, which measures the proportion of circulating supply that is in profit, has begun to turn upwards. As of September 22, about 78.2% of Bitcoin's circulating supply was in profit, a clear recovery from 63% on September 17. Historically, this indicator often briefly enters above 70% during bear market rebounds before falling back again as profit-taking selling emerges.
The current rally is also characterized by notable buying pressure from ETF and corporate balance sheet funds. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of $999 million on September 21, the largest single-day inflow since October 6, 2025. Corporate capital has also returned to buying, with strategy buying 950 BTC in the week ended September 20 at an average price of $79,670.
The most important short-term support range is now between $85,000 and $86,500. If capital flows remain positive, the next target will point to $90,000. However, it's essential to monitor whether these funds can continue buying above their cost basis, as this would indicate a shift from dip-buying capital to structural demand driving trend expansion.