Bitcoin's $90,000 Hopes Hinge on Treasury Yield Threshold
The cryptocurrency market is facing a crucial test as Bitcoin trades above $86,000. According to Oliver Carding, head of marketing at Tesseract Group, which manages $500 million in assets, the U.S. 10-year real Treasury yield is a key indicator to watch. If the yield remains above 3%, Carding predicts a return to the $80,000, $82,000 range for Bitcoin, rather than a move up to $90,000.
Carding is monitoring the inflation-adjusted yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds ahead of the U.S. jobs report on October 14. He uses a real yield of around 3% as a threshold, and if yields make a sustained move above that level, he sees Bitcoin as more likely to retest the lower range than to rise to $90,000.
The market is currently bullish, with Bitcoin trading above $86,000, up 3.4% over the past 24 hours. However, a jobs figure that significantly beats forecasts could strengthen expectations for an interest rate hike in October, potentially weakening risky assets like Bitcoin.