Bitcoin's Bear Market May Be Nearing Its Final Stretch

A chart analyst is predicting that Bitcoin may be entering its final quarter of decline as it follows a historical four-year cycle, with a possible bottom forming in October.

The current downturn began after Bitcoin's October 2025 high, putting the cryptocurrency roughly on track to enter its final stretch of bear market, according to the analyst.

Bitcoin has historically moved through one year of bear market followed by three years of bull market, based on patterns dating back to prior cycles. The analyst notes that a rejection from resistance could open a path down toward $56,500, then $44,000, with $39,000 identified as a further downside target if selling accelerates.

On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin was rejected near $66,300 in mid-July before breaking below a rising trend line, which now sits near $65,300 and could act as resistance going forward. Near-term support sits in a zone between $59,369 and $62,533, the analyst says, describing this as the key area to watch heading into the weekly close.