Bitcoin's Break Below $74,887: A Hawkish Surprise Could Be Disaster

Bitcoin's price has been on a sharp decline since mid-September, breaking through every support shelf it built on the way up. This is a concerning trend for order flow traders, who typically look for price to bounce off established support levels.

The key level to watch now is $74,887, which marks the next real floor according to the 4-hour chart. If this level gives way, there's little structure in place to prevent a deeper flush.

The upcoming Fed rate decision at 2:00 PM ET will likely have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price action. With markets pricing a coin flip between a hold and a 25 basis point hike, the outcome could either exacerbate or reverse the current downtrend.

If the Fed surprises with a hawkish move, it could hit the most speculative corners of the market first, including Bitcoin. On the other hand, a dovish surprise could trigger a violent relief bid in risk assets and potentially lead to a short squeeze back toward the broken order blocks at $77,369 and $78,611.