Bitcoin's Breakout Fate Hangs in Balance as One Weekly Candle Determines Its Future

Bitcoin's price has reached its highest level since January 2026, hovering around $84,000. According to Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, a strong weekly close above $82,000 could confirm a breakout towards $100,000. However, a drop back below this level would turn the move into another false start.

Cowen argues that a weekly close above the May 2026 high of around $82,500 would give traders more confidence in Bitcoin's new bull market. If Bitcoin falls back below this level, the breakout could end up as a wick, or a brief move higher that quickly reverses.

The macro conditions are making it difficult for Bitcoin to reach its target, with the 10-year Treasury yield topping 5% on Wednesday, reaching its highest level in 19 years. Additionally, September's flash PMI data came in much stronger than economists expected, which can make risk assets like Bitcoin less attractive.