Bitcoin's Breakout Hopes Hang in Balance as $64,650 Resistance Looms

Bitcoin's recent price action is being closely watched as it approaches a key resistance area near $64,650. The cryptocurrency has been trading near $64,100 on Wednesday, with renewed institutional inflows and hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran supporting risk sentiment.

The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that Washington could reach an agreement with Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday or Wednesday, which would ease concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies. OPEC+ decided on Sunday to increase oil production from September, further reducing concerns about global supply constraints, and pushing crude oil prices to their lowest level since July 13.

The lower oil prices could help reduce inflationary pressure and weaken expectations that the Federal Reserve will pursue additional monetary tightening, as seen in the declining rate-hike expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in a 58.9% probability of a September interest-rate increase, down from 64.7% on Tuesday.

Despite the recent recovery, Bitcoin retains a mildly bearish technical bias because it remains beneath several important moving averages. A decisive break above the $64,650 resistance area could strengthen the recovery and open the way toward higher resistance levels.