Bitcoin’s Decline Milder Than Past Bear Markets Despite 32% Drop

Bitcoin has experienced a roughly 32% drop from its record high set on October 6, 2025, when it peaked at $126,000. As of the latest data, the price stands at approximately $85,453. Despite this decline, the current correction has been relatively mild compared to past bear markets.

The analysis highlights that Bitcoin’s fall from its peak has been smaller than previous cycles. After its 2013 high, Bitcoin dropped 69.7% within a year, while the declines following the 2017 and 2021 peaks were 82.3% and 74.6%, respectively. The maximum drawdown in the current bear market also remains less severe, with the lowest point reaching just above $59,000 on June 30, a 53% decline from the peak.

Experts attribute the shorter downturn and reduced time near the bottom to the increased influence of institutional capital and spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Tim Sun, a senior research analyst at HashKey Group, noted that earlier bull markets were driven by retail investors and leveraged trading, whereas this cycle has seen more participation from institutions. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primitive Fund, explained that ETFs tend to buy on price declines to maintain target allocations, stabilizing the market.

While lower volatility has helped mitigate the downturn, it may also limit future gains. Jeff Anderson, head of U.S. at STS Digital, suggested that as more participants enter the Bitcoin market, realized volatility will decline, potentially resulting in smaller drawdowns but also lower upside peaks. Bitcoin’s annualized volatility is now around 40%, significantly below its historical average of over 80%. However, Ardern warned that further rises in the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield, which recently hit 5.7%, could deepen the bear market.