Bitcoin's Defense of Median Realized Price Boosts Upward Odds

Bitcoin's defense of its median realized price has increased the probability that its next major move will favor buyers, according to Bitfinex analysts. The analysts identified $63,200 as the key support level and $67,176 as the breakout point for an upside volatility expansion.

The median realized price has acted as a strong support level during repeated tests over the past two weeks. Although Bitcoin finished the week ending August 16 down 3.1% at $62,921, it later recovered and returned to the $63,000-$64,000 range.

However, low activity in the market could amplify the next move. Compressed volatility has coincided with exceptionally weak trading and network activity, according to Bitfinex. Coin-adjusted spot exchange volume has fallen to levels last recorded in early 2019, while Bitcoin transfer velocity has reached a seven-year low.

Institutional demand has yet to support an upside break. US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows on four of the five sessions between August 10 and August 14, losing about $385.2 million for the week. Corporate treasury demand also turned negative after Strategy recorded a third consecutive week of divestment.