Bitcoin's Election Cycle: A Pattern of Boom and Bust

Bitcoin's price movements have been influenced by the US election calendar, according to an analysis by Alphractal founder Joao Wedson. He found that bear markets typically emerge about a year before midterm elections and bull runs begin after presidential elections.

The research indicates that cycle bottoms have historically formed just before or after these midterm contests, while price peaks have tended to occur shortly after the winner's inauguration following presidential elections. This pattern aligns with broader market behavior, where political uncertainty often weighs on risk assets before elections, only to lift once results are confirmed.

Binance Research previously found that Bitcoin fell by an average of roughly 56% during US midterm election periods, but rebounded with an average gain of 54% in the year following the elections. Wedson cautioned that it remains too early to confirm a definitive market turnaround and emphasized that several key indicators still need to materialize before a sustained bull market can be declared.