Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle May Be Dead, Replaced by Six-to-Eight Year Cycles

The four-year cycle of Bitcoin's price movements, long thought to be linked to the halving event that occurs every four years, may be coming to an end. According to popular on-chain analyst Willy Woo, BTC is transitioning towards a six-to-eight year cycle influenced by debt and liquidity conditions similar to traditional financial markets.

The current market structure has changed dramatically since the introduction of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold close to 1.3 million BTC, or over 6% of circulating supply. Public companies with at least 1,000 BTC own over a million units, and together ETFs and corporate treasuries control almost 12% of circulating BTC.

The halving's influence on the broader price cycle has weakened due to newly mined supply becoming increasingly insignificant relative to existing market conditions. The next halving event in early 2028 will reduce new BTC issuance to approximately 0.4% of the existing supply per year, further diminishing its impact.