Bitcoin's Fragile Setup: Will Longs Get Caught Sleeping?
The Bitcoin price has been trading in a fragile setup, with momentum flatlined and 59% of smart money positioned long. However, actual order flow is getting crushed by sellers, which is a major red flag.
According to Joerg Hiller's analysis, the current setup is primed for a flush, with open interest dropping 0.58% in 24 hours and short-covering and position reduction dominating the market. The Bollinger Band picture also suggests that the path of least resistance remains choppy sideways-to-lower.
The macro backdrop for crypto remains loaded with tension, with Bitcoin still sitting below its 20-day SMA at $78,001. To reclaim upside continuation, price needs to hold above $78K, and any daily close back below $76,517 would invalidate the bull scenario.