Bitcoin's Halving Cycle Suggests Bottom in Sight as ETF Purchases Revive

The Bitcoin halving cycle suggests that the cryptocurrency's bear market may soon be coming to an end, or has already bottomed out. The outlook for Q4 is cautiously optimistic due to renewed ETF purchases, compelling valuations, and an improvement in buy-and-hold behavior among investors.

From a technical perspective, the balance of risks for Bitcoin is shifting to the topside, with the near-term bias outright bullish above the $80K round handle. The 4-year halving cycle has relatively reliably helped traders identify significant tops and bottoms over the years, although there's no guarantee it will continue to do so.

The growth rate of fiat money in the financial system has slowed, while central banks are shifting towards interest rate increases due to concerns about re-accelerating inflation. However, this trend may develop into a potential headwind for Bitcoin as we move through Q4.