Bitcoin’s Historic Gains Post-Midterms Highlight Volatility and Opportunity

CryptoQuant has reviewed Bitcoin’s performance following the last three U.S. midterm elections, highlighting a pattern of gains over the subsequent 12 months. Bitcoin saw increases of 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterms, respectively. However, the data also shows that these gains did not come without volatility, particularly in 2018, when Bitcoin dropped about 45.5% in the first month post-election before recovering to a 44.9% gain over the year.

The historical performance of the S&P 500, which has finished higher in all 19 twelve-month periods following U.S. midterm elections since 1950, provides context for Bitcoin’s potential post-election performance. Reduced political uncertainty after elections may create a more favorable environment for risk assets, including Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin also faces unique challenges, such as elevated U.S. Treasury yields and ongoing regulatory uncertainty in the crypto market.

Demand for Bitcoin ETFs could be another key indicator of future performance. While U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $241.1 million in net inflows from Sept. 28 through Oct. 2, this was significantly lower than the $2.39 billion recorded the previous week. The relationship between Bitcoin’s price and active addresses has also been inconsistent, highlighting the complexity of predicting Bitcoin’s performance based solely on historical election patterns.

For the post-midterm pattern to repeat in 2026, factors such as Treasury yield stabilization, sustained investment demand, and improved regulatory clarity will be critical. While history has favored Bitcoin in the year following midterm elections, the 2018 cycle serves as a reminder that substantial losses can occur before any recovery.