Bitcoin's Low May Be In, But Will Prices Surge or Stagnate?

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, believes Bitcoin's low is in. According to Thorn, reclaiming the 50-week moving average usually signals that a bear market low has been reached. The last time this happened was on September 20, when Bitcoin closed above the moving average for the first time in 45 weeks.

Historically, after four of the last five bear markets, the first weekly close above this moving average followed a low that held steady. In October 2015, May 2019, May 2020, and March 2023, Bitcoin's price surged after reclaiming the average. However, there is no guarantee of a rally.

The exception was from late 2021 to 2022, when Bitcoin crossed above the 50-week average twice but made lower lows due to major events like the collapse of the Luna stablecoin and FTX exchange. Thorn's signal suggests that the $57,718 low from July 1 is unlikely to be broken.