Bitcoin's Midterm Quarter Blues: Will History Repeat?

Bitcoin has historically fallen in the fourth quarters of US midterm years, with declines seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022. As the November 3 election approaches, investors are watching to see if Q4 2026 will repeat this pattern, with Bitcoin trading near $83,600, roughly one-third below its record high of $126,080 reached in October 2025.

The past declines were driven by various factors, including halving cycles, Fed policy, liquidity issues, and crypto shocks. However, the drivers behind these historical declines are unclear, and Q4 2026 differs due to strong ETF demand, high yields, and fresh regulation, which may reshape Bitcoin's risk profile and market dynamics.

Ahead of the November 3 election, the market presents a mixed picture, with investors looking for signs of another repeat. While some may be concerned about the potential for another decline, others may see this as an opportunity to buy into the market at lower prices.