Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score Fails to Signal Bear Market Bottom Amid Trump Tariffs

Bitcoin's MVRV-Z Score, a metric used to gauge the market's sentiment and predict potential bottoms, failed to mark the bear market bottom in June 2026. Unlike previous cycles in 2015, 2018, and 2022, where the Z-score dipped below zero, it remained positive this time around.

The failure of the MVRV-Z Score can be attributed to the disruption caused by U.S. tariff announcements and policy reversals under President Donald J. Trump's administration. These events led to increased market volatility and shifted risk sentiment, making it difficult for traders to rely solely on traditional cycle signals.

According to J.P. Morgan, delays and reversals in the rollout of Trump's tariffs added to market uncertainty, raising concerns about global growth. As a result, traders may need to combine macroeconomic data with on-chain signals to accurately assess the impact of these events on cryptocurrency markets.