Bitcoin's October Path Hinges on Fed and Inflation Data
Bitcoin started October near $85,360, boosted by weak U.S. jobs data that reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The cryptocurrency briefly climbed close to $87,000 before retreating below $86,000 during Monday's Asian trading. Despite the pullback, Bitcoin remained 1.3% higher over 24 hours, marking its second attempt in a week to break through resistance near $87,400.
The September jobs report showed only 29,000 new payrolls, easing pressure for rate hikes at the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting. Treasury yields eased, while global equity markets extended gains. However, Bitcoin faces mixed macro signals, with lower Treasury yields supporting risk assets while a stronger dollar adds uncertainty.
Technical indicators suggest near-term caution. Analyst Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin's Sunday gains have consistently reversed on Mondays over the past five weeks. Additionally, a TD Sequential sell signal on Bitcoin's four-hour chart has historically preceded corrections ranging from 1.74% to 4.37%. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana also showed similar cautionary signals.
The October 14 CPI report and the October 29 PCE inflation report will shape expectations for interest rates. A stronger breakout could push Bitcoin toward $90,000, while weaker demand might expose the $76,000 to $80,000 range. ETF fund flows, inflation data, Treasury yields, and the Fed's October decision remain central to Bitcoin's path forward.