Bitcoin's Rebound Met with Caution as Exchange Reserves Soar

Bitcoin has rebounded to around $81,000, but on-chain data suggests caution about the sustainability of the rally. The exchange reserves have reached approximately 702,900 BTC, the highest level since the start of 2026.

The recent increase in reserves indicates a potential expansion of sellable supply, which could put pressure on prices at higher levels. However, this does not necessarily mean sales are being executed, as other purposes such as custody changes or use as collateral are also possible.

Net inflows into exchanges have been persistent, with the latest reading showing a net inflow of approximately 439 BTC. This is in contrast to the recent decline in U.S. spot demand, which has pushed the Coinbase Premium back into negative territory.

Binance's dominance in global exchange trends cannot be ignored, and changes in supply occurring on the platform serve as a critical clue for understanding the global Bitcoin market. The whale ratio, which measures the proportion of large transfers relative to total inflows, is currently at approximately 0.43, not an extreme level compared to historical peaks.