Bitcoin's Recovery Hinges on Breaking Through Major Resistance
Bitcoin has maintained its grip above its realized price throughout the current bear market, signaling a potential strength in its recovery. Despite the share of supply held at a profit reaching levels last seen near the November 2022 low, Bitcoin has not recorded a daily close below its realized price.
The June low also remained above the realized price, and if Bitcoin continues to hold above its true market mean near $77,000, the June bottom would be the shallowest of the three bear-market lows recorded since 2017. The largest long-term holder supply band sits between $84,000 and $85,000, just below the current price area.
A move back below $84,000 would put the $77,000 true market mean back in focus, while the main resistance above the market is the mean market-value-to-realized-value price near $96,700. The level represents the point at which average holder profits return to their long-term norm.
Options positioning also points to the same region, with dealer exposure on Deribit shifted sharply in one day, with positive gamma concentrated near the $95,000 strike and negative gamma between the current price and $92,000. This places $95,000, $97,000 as the first major resistance zone if the recovery continues.