Bitcoin's Recovery Not Yet Confirmed by Profitable Supply

Bitcoin's recent recovery has improved investor profitability, but historical cycle data suggests that the market has not yet crossed a decisive turning point.

The profitable supply of Bitcoin increased from 46.2% on June 30th to 58% on July 21st, with over 10% of the circulating supply entering realized profits as the price bounced off the mid-$50,000s to the $60,000s.

However, at press time, the metric had retraced back to 55.2%, still lower than previous cycle highs of approximately 69%, 64%, 83%, and 77%.

Long-term holders are still accumulating, while short-term holders have continued to sell close to their cost basis with STH SOPR currently at 1.0, suggesting that selling pressure is easing.

The current whale trends suggest growing conviction below the surface, as investors who regain profitability often face a choice between realizing gains and continuing to hold.