Bitcoin’s Recovery Strengthens as Analysts Debate Cycle Bottom
Bitcoin has shown a steady recovery from its June lows, with three consecutive monthly closes now shifting the burden of proof toward bears. Analyst Ben Cowen notes that Bitcoin’s move above its May high suggests the July low may have marked the current four-year cycle bottom. This would be the earliest cycle low in Bitcoin’s history, as previous lows have occurred in the fourth quarter of each cycle.
The cryptocurrency is still down more than 25% from its October 1, 2025, level, despite trading above $85,000. Retail sentiment has shifted from bearish to neutral on Stocktwits, with conversation volume dropping to low levels in the past 24 hours.
However, some analysts remain cautious. That Martini Guy points out that Bitcoin’s current consolidation resembles the range formation seen in late 2025, which ultimately led to a decline. A break and hold above $87,000 would strengthen the bullish case, while another rejection could reinforce the bearish comparison.
StoneX’s outlook for Q4 2026 suggests that Bitcoin may be nearing the end of its bear market. Factors supporting this include the recovery of the MVRV Z-Score to 0.8, Bitcoin ETF flows reaching $57 billion, and long-term holders controlling over 63% of the supply. Despite mixed macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative remains a long-term driver.