Bitcoin’s Strong October Start Eyes $95K Target

Bitcoin (BTC) kicked off October with strong momentum, opening the month near $83,000 and quickly rising to test the $87,000 level. This rally marks a roughly 33.23% surge over the past three months, though the recent price action suggests a period of consolidation near the highs. While the long-term trend remains bullish, short-term momentum has cooled, as indicated by an RSI around 41 and a MACD below its signal and zero lines.

Despite the technical cooling, fundamentals continue to support a positive outlook. MicroStrategy (MSTR) acquired 334 BTC for $28.7 million in early October, estimating a $20.9 billion digital-asset gain for the third quarter. Meanwhile, Metaplanet (MTPLF) increased its holdings to 44,000 BTC, aiming to allocate 85-90% of its assets to Bitcoin. Additionally, Bitcoin ETF flows have shown strong inflows, with $164.22 million over one day and $226.41 million over seven days, according to Coinglass data.

The potential for further upside remains, with some predictions suggesting Bitcoin could test $90,000 if the current positive setup persists. Kalshi’s market-implied year-end high has risen to $95,000, up $6,600, reflecting strengthened market expectations. However, regulatory developments could play a crucial role, as CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam proposed the agency’s first crypto market rules, potentially establishing a clearer federal framework for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Looking ahead, Fed decisions and upcoming CPI and PCE data will be key factors in determining whether Bitcoin’s price consolidation turns into another leg higher. Meanwhile, Bitcoin-linked stocks have shown a weaker performance over the past week, with companies like Coinbase Global (COIN) down 6% and MARA Holdings (MARA) down 12%.