Bitcoin's Summer Lull May Be Hiding a Significant Trend Reversal

The current summer lull in Bitcoin's price action may be hiding a significant trend reversal. According to an analysis using Bollinger Bands on the quarterly chart, Bitcoin may have already set a new four-year cycle bottom on July 1 at $57,735.

This assessment is based on the fact that Bitcoin precisely tested a key long-term support level on the very first day of Q3, 2026. The price immediately fell to a local low before meeting strong buying demand near the middle line of the 3-month Bollinger Bands, which stands at $57,431.

Historical context demonstrates the strength of this zone, as similar tests of the quarterly moving average occurred during the final stages of market cleansing in the 2015, 2019 and 2022 cycles. However, the rebound point recorded on July 1 contains a trap for retail traders due to the mechanics of an open candle.

The current 3-month candle will not close until September 30, leaving room for manipulation. Major players could push the price lower once again before the end of September, breaking below the July low of $57,735 and collecting the stop orders of panicked traders.