Bitcoin's Uptober Track Record: Six Wins, Two Losses

The nickname 'Uptober' has a reputation among crypto investors for being a strong month for Bitcoin. To test this claim, we analyzed the monthly candles from Binance since 2018. The results show that six out of eight Octobers ended in the black for Bitcoin. The strongest gain was in 2021, with a 39.9% increase, followed by 2023 with a 28.5% gain, and 2020 with a 28.0% gain. In contrast, 2018 and 2025 both ended in the red, with losses of 3.8% and 3.9%, respectively.

Last October's experience is a cautionary tale. On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin reached its record high of around $126,000, but just four days later, US President Trump announced tariffs of 100% on Chinese imports. Within 24 hours, leveraged positions worth over $19 billion were force-closed, resulting in a 3.9% loss for Bitcoin by the end of the month.

Looking at the current market, Bitcoin is currently trading at around $84,800, and has been stuck in a range between $83,500 and $86,600 since September 21. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are also providing support and resistance levels, with the 50-day moving average around $78,300 and the 200-day moving average around $75,300.