Bitcoin's Volatility Clock Syncs with Wall Street

Bitcoin's price discovery has become increasingly concentrated during US business hours, according to a recent study. The analysis of 87,672 hourly observations from Kraken's XBT/USD market between 2016 and 2025 found that the nine hours from 13:00 to 21:59 UTC accounted for 50.6% of Bitcoin's daily realized variance in 2022-2025, up from 38.4% in 2016-2018.

These hours represent just 37.5% of a full day, suggesting price discovery has become increasingly concentrated while Bitcoin itself continues trading around the clock. The study found that Bitcoin's volatility peak now moves when New York changes its clocks and fades when the New York Stock Exchange closes, tying the market's most active period closely to the US equity calendar.

The shift is not limited to Bitcoin; similar increases in the US-hours share of variance appeared in six of seven other long-listed crypto assets tested on Kraken, including Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Cardano, Dogecoin, and Chainlink. The study's findings suggest that institutionalization may be a broader explanation for the shift, rather than assigning it to one product or event.