Bitcoin's Year-to-Date Loss Hangs in Balance as Leverage Rises

Bitcoin's year-to-date loss is still intact, but there are signs that it could be erased before the end of 2026. The current price of BTC is around $82,949, which is roughly 5% below its starting point for the year.

The spot market has shown some resilience, with buyers driving prices back towards $86,000 and futures leverage building at the same time. This combination suggests that there is enough underlying demand to challenge the 2026 starting area near $87,500.

However, Glassnode's data also indicates that leverage in the market is rising, which could make it increasingly sensitive to price movements. The options market, on the other hand, is pricing relatively little movement, which could lead to a disconnect between expectations and actual price action.

Institutional demand remains strong, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting significant inflows in recent days. To finish 2026 in the green, Bitcoin would need to reclaim its starting point of around $87,500 and hold it.