Bitfinex Sees Bitcoin Gains Hinging on Spot Demand Amid Fed Rate Decision

Bitcoin faces a challenging month as economic data could influence rate expectations while higher Treasury returns compete with cryptocurrency holdings. According to Bitfinex, further gains require spot demand, or purchases of Bitcoin itself, while financial conditions remain restrictive.

The exchange outlines 17 macro catalysts that could move Bitcoin in October, including inflation and spending releases ahead of the Federal Reserve's central monetary policy decision on October 28th.

Bitfinex attributes September's approximately 6% advance partly to roughly $2.5 billion in net U.S. spot ETF inflows during the three weeks through September 29th. However, buying continued near September's end, though daily additions slowed substantially compared with the previous week's larger allocations.

The exchange sees higher inflation-adjusted Treasury yields as the principal constraint on Bitcoin, which generates no cash flow for holders. If the 10-year real yield holds at or above 2.80% through the Fed decision, it would support Bitfinex's thesis; falling below 2.50% would remove that pressure.