BitMEX Shutdown and FOMC Uncertainty Weigh on Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin's price has declined to below $64,000 as traders navigate the shutdown of BitMEX and uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. The exchange's decision to shut down marks the end of a significant chapter in the crypto derivatives market, with K33 noting that its influence has waned sharply in recent years.

BitMEX was once a dominant player in offshore crypto derivatives, representing 40% of Bitcoin open interest, but its share fell to just 0.6% by the first half of 2026. The exchange's decline accelerated after the US Department of Justice targeted it in 2020, and competition from newer derivatives venues, changing market structures, and regulatory pressure further reduced its relevance.

The FOMC uncertainty is also contributing to the cautious backdrop for Bitcoin. Markets are pricing a 66.3% probability of unchanged rates and a 33.7% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, reflecting an unusually divided outlook. K33 suggests that the uncertainty partly reflects new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's reduced reliance on forward guidance, leaving markets with less clarity ahead of policy meetings.