BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Options Signal Calmer Trading After Rebound
Options traders are betting that Bitcoin's wild price swings are behind it for now. Contracts tied to BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) have priced in significantly less turbulence than the fund experienced during its recent rally, according to Saxo Bank analysis.
The gap between expectations and reality is striking. IBIT's implied volatility sat at 37.4% as of Tuesday, but the realized volatility over the prior 20 trading sessions was 45.5%, a measure of how much the fund's price actually moved.
Koen Hoorelbeke, an investment and options strategist at Saxo Bank, said in his analysis that 'the options market appears to be pricing calmer conditions than the recent past produced.'
The divergence between implied and realized volatility suggests options traders see the post-rebound period as one of consolidation rather than continuation of sharp moves. Whether this calm materializes remains to be seen.