Bloomberg Analyst Predicts Bitcoin ETFs Will Triple Gold Amid Contrasting Views on Fund Performance

Bloomberg's top ETF analyst Eric Balchunas made two conflicting statements about Bitcoin funds on social media platform X. Ninety minutes apart, he first acknowledged that by one definition, these funds have 'burned cash', meaning more money came in than the assets grew to reflect.

This admission was followed by a forecast that Bitcoin ETFs will eventually 'triple gold' in assets. Balchunas cited three reasons for this prediction: younger investors inheriting wealth and defaulting to Bitcoin, increased use by big-money players as it matures, and more enthusiasm and sales firepower.

The price charts tell a different story, however. Over the past year, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is down 34.44%, while SPDR Gold Trust (GOLD) is up 17.67%. Even with a recent 19.47% bounce, IBIT still trails GLD's performance over five years.

Balchunas' 'triple gold' thesis rests on demographic trends and the maturation of Bitcoin as an investment category. He noted that no amount of wholesaler enthusiasm can change the drawdown current IBIT holders are sitting on, but argued that flows have stayed sticky through the pain, indicating maturity rather than fatigue.