Brazil Election 2026: Lula vs Bolsonaro and the Future of Crypto Regulations

The Brazilian election on October 4 is expected to have significant implications for the country's cryptocurrency regulations, regardless of the outcome. According to a recent poll by Datafolha, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is leading with 45% of valid votes, followed closely by Flavio Bolsonaro with 42%. The election is taking place as Brazil's crypto sector adjusts to a regulatory framework introduced during Lula's current administration.

The Central Bank of Brazil has issued regulations regarding the supervision of virtual asset services, including authorization, governance, consumer protection, internal controls, and anti-money laundering activities. These regulations are already effective or scheduled, and crypto companies must comply regardless of the election result.

One of the key changes introduced by Resolution BCB 588 is the requirement for virtual-asset providers to report certain information to Coaf whenever a transfer to or from a self-custodied wallet exceeds $10,000 or the corresponding amount. This measure does not prohibit self-custody and does not establish a $10,000 transaction ceiling, but rather introduces more reporting for transactions with wallets that use users' private keys.

The Brazil Election has added relevance to the industry because the next administration will inherit rules that have only recently entered into force. The existing regulations will not simply vanish once voting is over, and further measures would require going through the official process in Brazil.