BTC's Macroeconomic Pricing Shifts: A Nine-Year Reevaluation
The relationship between Bitcoin (BTC) and the Federal Reserve has been reevaluated through nine years of data. It's found that BTC hasn't decoupled from the Fed, but rather changed its wiring over time.
On September 16, 2026, the first rate increase in three years occurred, with a 25 basis point hike to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Despite this, BTC did not exhibit a typical 'policy-shock crash'. However, it's been observed that over various horizons from days to weeks to years, how the Fed transmits to the BTC price is more complicated than initially thought.
A re-run of data from January 2017 to September 15, 2026 revealed a set of facts far more complex than either the 'BTC is unaffected by the Fed' or 'BTC has fully decoupled' narratives. It was found that over the 237 trading days from October 6, 2025, to September 15, 2026, the effective federal funds rate fell by 46 basis points, and the Fed's balance sheet expanded by $150 billion.
During this period, the Nasdaq 100 gained 16.8%, while the S&P 500 rose 13.0%. However, BTC plummeted from $124,000 to $75,000, a drop of 38.2%, despite the increased liquidity and equity market rally.